Africa’s Growing Population: The time bomb!!

Africa’s population is projected to double to 2.5 billion by the year 2050. Of this number, 70 percent will be under the age of 30, making Africa the youngest continent in the world. The projected 70 percent youth population, representing 1.75 billion youthful persons, signals the urgency for creative solutions for solving this looming population problem beginning from now into the next twenty-eight years.

The population of the continent from the year 2020 to 2050, projected from the 2020 base year figure, is as follows:

2020: 1.34 billion

2030: 1.69 billion

2040: 2.08billion

2050: 2.50 billion

Implications of Africa’s rapid population growth

Africa’s increasing young population will, among others, entail demands for more

Education
Jobs
Housing
Health care

It is the finances required to provide adequately for the above demands, not considering the many infrastructural needs of a rapidly growing population, that makes Africa’s population growth take on the proportions of a time bomb.

Sources of Africa’s rapid population growth

Much of the continent’s rapid population growth arises from the countries that have relatively large and fertile land sizes. These are Nigeria, with a population of 206 million, Ethiopia, with a population of 115 million, Egypt, with a population of 102 million, Democratic Republic of Congo, with a population of 89.56 million, Tanzania with a population of 59.734 million, South Africa, with a population of 59.31 million, and Kenya, with a population of 53,771.

The direct sources that fuel Africa’s rapid population growth arise from:

High fertility rates
Teenage pregnancies
Polygamous marriages
Divorce and remarriages

The direct sources of rapid population growth, that is apart from indirect sources such as immigration, are the primary and crucial threats that the continent should worry about. These are the threats that will need direct, bold and creative solutions.

The current June edition of Africa Supreme magazine provides details on the high fertility rates and associated factors underlying Africa’s rapid population growth. Ultimately, the sources listed as (2) to (4) above are further sources of high fertility, outside the primary nuclear family system, that also need consideration in any attempts to solve Africa’s population problem. The July edition of Africa Supreme magazine will discuss solution options for helping to slow down the rapid population growth pattern of the continent.

Fertility rate

Fertility rate refers to the number of live births in a year per 1000 women of their reproductive age; generally 15-49 years. There is also the concept of birth rate which refers to the total number of births in a year per 1000 women of their reproductive age. Obviously, the birth rate in most populations will be higher than the fertility rate since it includes non-live births.

Fertility rates on the continent have been declining over the years due to a number of factors. The rates, beginning from the year 2000 and subsequent projected fertility rates up to 2050 are indicated below:

2000: 5.5

2010: 5.0

2014: 4.9

2015: 4.5

2020: 4.3

2022: 4.2

2030: 3.8

2040: 3.4

2050: 3.0

A population replaces itself when its fertility rate is 2.1; that is, 2.1 children per woman. At this rate, the population is described as a stationary population. A fertility rate of 2.1 is especially recommended for overpopulated countries. Africa’s fertility rate is projected to decline to 2.1 by the end of this century; that is in 78 years' time, and that is a long way from now.

The fertility rate in North African countries in 2020, stood at 3.25, which was lower than the total rate of 4.3 for Africa in 2020.

Some African countries that have fertility rates far above the listed rates include the following:

Country Fertility rate

1. Niger 6.8

2. Somalia 6.0

3. Congo DR 5.8

4. Mali 5.8

5. Chad 5.6

6. Angola 5.4

7. Burundi 5.3

8. Nigeria 5.3

9. Gabon 5.2

10. Burkina Faso 5.1

Death rates

Death rates are reported as the number of deaths per thousand persons per year. Death rates from 1950, the base year, to 2022 are indicated as follows:

1950: 25.00

2010: 10.36

2015: 8.87

2020: 7.95

2021: 7.84

2022: 7.72

Population growth rates

Population growth rates over the African continent from the year 2000 to projected rates in 2030, 2040 and 2050 are presented below.

Year Growth rate

2000: 2.43

2010: 2.57

2020: 2.45

2030: 2.20

2040: 2.03

2050: 1.76

It is realized from the above data that population growth rates on the African continent have been declining over the years indicated, except for 2010, the reasons for which are not available. The population growth rate in Northern Africa stood at 1.92% in 2020, which was much lower than the total percentage growth rate of 2.45% on the continent.

African countries that have population growth rates above the prevailing rates are the following:

Niger
Uganda
Equatorial Guinea

The three listed countries have population growth rates of over 3% per year.

Going forward

It can be noted from the above that fertility rates, death rates and population growth rates have been declining considerably in Africa, since at least the year 2000. The decline in death rates started as far back as 1950.

It could be concluded that with a few measures, especially measures to reduce fertility, that could be introduced in population planning and management processes, Africa, through the efforts of its various countries, should be able to hold its total population to a figure no more than 2.3 billion by the end of 2050.