Global warming has been the source of havoc on Earth causing unbearable heat waves, crop failures, wild fires, floods, rising sea levels that have eroded and deprived sea shores of sands, and many other untold hardships. Global warming started during the first industrial revolution, 1750-1850, when machines powered by steam started to be used for production. The use of heat and the production of chemical gases in any form disturb the natural temperature balance of the Earth. The Earth absorbs 50 percent of the sun’s energy in the form of light and re-emits some of the remaining energy from the face of the Earth back into space as heat, retaining some of the heat in the atmosphere to warm and maintain the temperature on Earth. It is this process that keeps the temperature of the Earth in balance. The atmosphere of the Earth is a complex system that can be easily affected by gases from natural events such as volcanic eruptions, biological processes such as cattle grazing, wetlands, and by human activities such as forest burning, charcoal burning, the burning of fossil fuels and many other human activities that affect the atmosphere of the Earth. Forest burning and the burning of fossil fuels such as petrol, diesel, kerosene, coal, oil and natural gas produce chemical gases that pollute the atmosphere of the Earth. Fossil fuels are composed of the remains of animals and plants that have been dead millions of years ago and have turned into oil that could be found in rocks and in the sea bed. When burnt in the engines of vehicles and in any other places, fossil fuels emit pollutant gases which contain the following:
Carbon dioxide
Carbon monoxide
Sulphur dioxide
Nitrogen oxides
Methane
When pollutants get into the Earth’s atmosphere, they disturb the balance in the amount of heat the Earth receives from the sun, the amount of heat reflected back into space, and the amount of heat retained on the Earth. Pollutants stay in the lower atmosphere of the Earth, cause air pollution, and block the amount of the sun’s heat that should be reflected into space. As a result, the natural amount of heat that should be retained on the Earth increases; consequently increasing the temperature on Earth. The phenomenon of increases in the Earth’s temperature as a result of the action of pollutants is referred to as Global Warming. The term “climate change” is also used to indicate the change from prevailing cooler temperatures during the period before the first industrial revolution to the warmer temperatures the world has been experiencing during and after the first industrial revolution.
Global agreement to combat climate change
The average global temperature during the pre-industrial period is estimated at 1.5°C increasing to 13.42°C in 1750. In December 2015, the United Nations (UN) invited 150 Heads of State to a conference referred to as Conference of the Parties (COP) in Paris, to develop the framework for measures to be taken globally to combat climate change and its effects in a document referred to as the Paris Agreement. The agreement was adopted by 196 parties on 12th December 2015, and came into effect on 4th November 2016. By the beginning of 2021, 197 countries had ratified the agreement. The conference used the temperature of 1.5°C obtained during the fifty year period 1850-1900 when global temperature observations started, to represent the average temperature of the pre-industrial period; a period when there were no records of global temperatures. The Paris Agreement is “a legally binding international treaty on climate change.” The goal of the Agreement is to “limit global warming to well below 2°, or preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius comparable to pre-industrial levels.” Measures are taken each year by the UN to ensure that the parties to the agreement are carrying out their part of the agreement. It is expected that the agreement to reach 2°Celcius or 1.5°Celcius will be attained by 2030.
From petrol and diesel automobiles to electric automobiles
The shift from the use of petrol and diesel fuels to the use of electric vehicles has become necessary due to the fact that fossil fuels are the key driving forces for global warming and therefore need to be controlled or eliminated if possible.
The 2021 Global Electric Vehicle (EV) Outlook reports that there were 10 million electric vehicles in use in the world in 2020. More than 120 countries, accounting for 85% of vehicle production, have announced their pledges for net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. About 18 of the 20 largest original equipment manufacturers (OEM) representing 90% of worldwide vehicle sales, are geared towards electric vehicle production. Ford Motors expects 40% of its sales worldwide to be fully electric by 2030. Electric vehicles are soon going to be the norm in Africa since most of Africa’s vehicle imports come from Europe and America which have vehicle electrification targets.
Besides, almost all African countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, obliging signatories to reduce their emissions. Africa’s target to reduce transportation emissions by at least 32% by 2030 cannot be achieved without substantial increase in electric vehicles (e-mobility). Africa’s vehicular emissions of carbon dioxide are increasing at an average rate of 7% per annum. Egypt, South Africa (SA), Nigeria, Libya, Morocco, Kenya, and Ghana alone are responsible for at least 70% of Africa’s vehicular emissions. South Africa has the highest emission intensity in the G20 group of industrialized and developing countries as of 2019, according to the Climate Transparency Organization.
Although the transition to e-mobility is inevitable, it presents significant challenges and opportunities which need to be addressed ahead of time. For example, electric vehicle owners worldwide prefer to charge their vehicle batteries at night and at weekends but fleet charging can also be done during the day as well. Battery charging at night, weekends and throughout the day is likely to increase, extend the peak duration and demand and create a strain on the power grid.
African countries will need to determine the limits of their power grid and make adequate provisions for the expansion of the grid. The impact of increase in electric vehicles has to be anticipated and managed to allow sufficient time for the power generation sector to be prepared; especially if the power grid expansion has to be based on renewable sources.
Though the argument for e-mobility is based on its zero emissions, there are indirect emissions associated with electricity production needed for charging. The higher the carbon intensity of the electricity grid, the higher the carbon footprint of the electric vehicle being charged. For example, in South Africa, the national energy mix makes it difficult to achieve net-zero emissions with electric vehicles. According to the International Energy Agency, around 70% of installed power generation capacity in South Africa is sourced from coal. According to Mauritius’ Ministry of Energy, the annual well-to-wheel carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from battery electric vehicles (BEV) charged from the grid electricity is 5% higher than that for a conventional vehicle even though the electricity mix consists of 20.9% renewables. A significant portion of power generation capacities has to be based on renewable sources such as solar. Charging the BEV with off-grid solar electricity would have reduced the emission factor to almost zero. While this requires adequate planning for the future, the other issue of the voltage and current distortions associated with the renewable energy integration need to be catered for now.
From fossil power to solar power
Future expansion of electricity generation in African countries has to be driven by renewable sources. Solar Off-grid charging stations can be a solution to reducing BEV carbon footprint, provide energy self-sufficiency, and present new economic opportunities; especially when electricity access in Africa is the lowest in the world. According to the International Energy Agency, access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa was 48% compared to a world average of 90% in 2019. The lowest was Central Africa (24%), followed by East Africa (47%), West Africa (56%). e-vehicle charging
Is Africa ready for electric vehicles?
Baseline studies need to be conducted in various African countries to determine the available numbers of electric vehicles, power requirements, and needs of potential owners. Unfortunately, most African countries have not as yet taken stock of the number of electric vehicles in their countries. In Egypt for instance, the lack of training has led to the situation where electric vehicles cannot be identified by customs officials at the point of entry for them to provide the owners the required incentives. This is also true for many African countries such as Ghana. The lack of policy direction regarding the inventory, infrastructure, tax exemptions, and trained personnel for electric vehicles suggests that Africa is not yet ready for e-mobility. The skills set in the automotive market and other service sectors needed to support and facilitate a transition to electric vehicles in Africa are unavailable. Most of the EV that will come into Africa will be pre owned, that is, used vehicles. This poses a significant challenge for used BEV owners in Africa who may need to replace their batteries after just a few years of ownership. This replacement can be costly since the cheapest battery estimate for Model S battery replacement can run into $12,000 according to Tesla and Current Automotive.
Hybrid electric vehicles
There are currently hybrid vehicles that operate on both the internal combustion engine system using fuel, and at the same time operate as battery electric vehicles (BEV). The two versions of hybrid electric vehicles are described as PHEV and HEV. PHEVThe abbreviation means Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. In this case the battery for operating the vehicle is charged externally by simply plugging in the battery terminal into the household electricity socket or getting the battery charged in a garage or any other appropriate place. HEV This hybrid vehicle operates differently from the PHEV. The battery in a HEV is not charged externally. In an HEV, whenever the battery is low, the engine automatically switches to the internal combustion fuel operating system. A PHEV can still run on an engine even if the battery is defective but a BEV runs only on battery power. The EV import statistics for Africa suggest potential customers are aware of this challenge and have rather opted for PHEV and HEV instead of BEV.
Can Africa make it in 2050?
The United States plans to change all its fuel driven vehicles to electric by 2030 at an estimated amount of 1.5 trillion US dollars. In Africa, the absence of electric vehicle manufacturing and assembly anywhere on the continent implies access to spare parts by EV owners, especially battery replacement, will be a problem. While VW has announced that it is not going to sell internal combustion engine vehicles beyond 2035 in Europe, its target for Africa is 2050. Electric vehicles in South Africa as of 2019 were about 5000 units. The highest share was HEV with a population of 3,879 followed by PHEV (574) and BEV (545).Ghana has an electric vehicle fleet of about 5,693 units as of 2020. Close to 98% were PHEV and 2?V. Mauritius has registered 16,109 HEV and PHEV and 331 BEV as of 2020. Thus 3.6% of vehicles in use in Mauritius are electric vehicles. EV fleet total in Nigeria is above 60,773 except that BEVs are virtually absent in Nigeria.
Expected lower tax revenue for African governments
Probably the most important reason that will hold Africa back from moving to e-mobility is the fear that e-mobility is likely to disrupt jobs in the informal sector and consequently affect African governments’ avenues for revenue generation. Most of the tax calculations on vehicle imports and registration are still based on engine capacity and home delivery value. Due to the high initial price of electric vehicles, some African countries classify them as a luxury good and owners are therefore required to pay high taxes as ad valorem tax. African countries have relied on the following fuel levies to quickly raise funds:
Sanitation levy
Excise duty
Road fund levy
Fuel taxes
The above are just a few of the taxes levied on petroleum fuels. The levies range from 12% to 70% of the fuel price across the continent. Government revenue mobilization from fuel taxes is going to decline since there will be low demand for fuel imports as soon as a country makes the decision to move to e-mobility. Many countries are therefore hesitant because a complete transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV) will lead to declining fuel sales that will definitely put this revenue stream at serious risk. Alternative streams of revenue generation will have to be explored since there is likely to be a trade deficit due to expected low demand for fuel imports. The EV value chain includes the basic materials, parts, and components (Tiers 1 to 3), charging infrastructure, and Lithium-ion battery.
The Way Forward
E-mobility deployment is new all over the world. User experience is key to informing policy decisions. It is important to build an EV community that will raise and share experiences and awareness among users and stakeholders. Deliberate attempts should be made to monitor EV growth per type to evaluate the effect of policy decisions. Right from the point of registration entry, harmonized system (HS) codes for electric vehicles of different categories should be separated for proper inventory. Besides this, the following measures and processes must be started as soon as possible:
Vehicle Legislative instruments and standards
According to research by the Brew-Hammond Energy Centre, only eight out of 54 African countries have vehicle standards for ICEV. Vehicle Legislative instruments and standards need to be made and updated to incorporate the new technology of automotive electric vehicles. This includes homologation standards for new electric vehicles and import standards for used electric vehicles. EV can deliver currents over 1200A and voltage of 800V requiring maximum safety at all levels of use, repair, and in accident situations. The 2022 version of the Hyundai Ioniq5 boasts a battery pack of 800V. The necessary legislative instruments and adequate standards should accordingly be initiated by African governments for:
Vehicle registration,
Maintenance
Buildings, and
Charging stations to avoid severe injuries and deaths from electrocution and fire
Training requirements: customs, mechanics and others
The advent of e-mobility requires new skills-set for:
Custom officials at the point of entry
Staff of vehicle licensing authorities
Staff of road safety authorities
First-level emergency responders
Insurance personnel
Valuation experts
Spare parts dealers
Formal and informal maintenance technicians
Currently, custom officials are not adequately trained to identify electric vehicles; vehicle registration and licensing authorities have not updated their checklist of inspection procedures; insurance personnel are struggling to quantify premium insurance rates; and there are few to no electric vehicle repair technicians. Most conventional vehicle repairers on the continent are in the informal sector where training has been purely based on apprenticeship.
The integration of On-Board Diagnostic (OBD) starting 1991 and OBD II starting in 1996 meant that mechanics had to be trained to diagnose sensors and actuators. Many artisans have lost their livelihood because they couldn’t diagnose advanced vehicle engine technology. In some cases, vehicle owners have had to replace their engines with older engine versions because they were easier to diagnose by the mechanics. Others have had to remove faulty sensors instead of replacing them because they could not find replacements due to unavailability of spare parts. The advent of electric vehicles which have more sensors and require a new skill-set is likely to pose even more problems.
A whole set of personnel who are presently connected with vehicles delivery at the ports, vehicle registration, insurance, vehicle repairs and maintenance and all other aspects of the automotive business will need to be retrained to be ready for the near future.
Refurbishment and recycling of e-vehicle batteries
A national battery strategy is required to alleviate battery fears. Government should facilitate a used battery market that will cater for refurbishment and the second life of EV batteries including recycling. The EV battery pack is made up of cells compiled into modules that can be replaced individually at a lesser cost. Gruber Motors took apart a customer’s Tesla Model S to repair and found that only one defective cell out of 7,000 caused the main battery pack to shut down. So rather than having the entire battery pack replaced, it could be repaired at a much lesser cost.
Government policies should tackle import duty on EV batteries to make them affordable. A nationwide fast-charging strategy should be incorporated into the national EV policy. England has implemented legislation that requires homes and office buildings to feature smart charging stations and chargers installed for every five parking spaces. One of the major potential benefits of EV is smart charging through the vehicle to the grid (V2G). The V2G is a bidirectional intelligently managed charging of EV that allows energy to be pushed back into the grid. The all-electric F-150 has a Backup Power capable of providing full-home power for up to three days on a fully charged battery.
Anticipation of possible job losses
The high voltage traction motors together with the battery pack of the BEV have replaced the engine and transmission of the internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV). Engine parts, clutch, radiators, and gears are all absent in a battery charged electric vehicle (BEV). This will result in job losses in the manufacture, assembly, repair, and spare parts of ICEV. Job losses will include the following:
Engine repairers
Radiator repairers
Clutch repairers
Gear repairers
Petrol and Diesel fuel stations
Spare parts dealers for ICEVs
The above are some of the jobs commonly carried out by mechanics in the mechanical shops. Electric vehicles will make these jobs redundant. Fuel companies will have to change their business to operation of electric battery charging stations using solar energy, and also create new businesses associated with e-mobility.
New job opportunities
The shift to electric vehicles will open up new job opportunities in the following areas:
Spare parts sales for electric vehicles
Battery production
Maintenance and refurbishment of batteries
Traction motor
Manufacture and sales of inverters and sensors
Charging stations infrastructure and installation across all respective countries
Training of drivers in basic vehicle electricity
Technical/Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in secondary and tertiary institutions
All the above training sectors will be necessary on condition that mechanics will also be required to undergo training, and secondly, that an enabling environment will be created to import EV parts, especially batteries. The new job opportunities will require new EV curriculum and training programmes across all divides of the secondary and tertiary education institutions in respective African countries.
